Over Under Win Totals Nfl
Over Under Betting is also known as “Game Total Betting” and you will often see it be referred to as either term. Beginner NFL bettors may be confused by Over Under Betting, but it is very easy to learn and understand once explained. Super Bowl 51 Over/Under is set at 58.5. Click Here for a $250 FREE Bet at Bovada. The NFL offseason has barely begun but some sportsbooks have dropped over/under totals for the 2020 season, headlined by the Chiefs and Ravens at 11.5 wins.
NFL win totals: Best over and under bets after schedule release originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Some may assume that the 2020 NFL schedule release won't have much of an impact on projected win totals for the upcoming season. After all, everyone already knew who each team was set to play against in 2020. So, the order in which the games are played shouldn't matter too much, right?
Wrong.
The schedule actually has a huge impact on picking win totals. The placement of bye weeks is one of the major factors. So too are stretches at the start of the season where it can be assumed that teams will be mostly healthy. So, if a team has a favorable stretch of opponents to open the year, the over may look better. But a few tough contests to start things off, or a brutal three to four-week span at any point in the season, could spell trouble.
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At the end of the day, it's impossible to predict everything right in the NFL. But for now, here are a few teams that are the best bets for the over and few that are solid bets for the under on their win totals.
All over/under totals are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Over Bets
1. Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 (-125). The Ravens and the Steelers have the two easiest schedules in the AFC. So, why aren't the Ravens listed here? Simple. Their win total is 11 while the Steelers' is 8.5. Both could exceed their numbers but for obvious reasons, but it will be easier for the Steelers to do that.
There aren't a lot of intimidating games on the Steelers' schedule besides the Ravens. Sure, the Browns and Bengals will always play hard against the rest of the AFC North. But the Steelers went 3-1 against them last year with Mason Rudolph and Devlin 'Duck' Hodges at quarterback. They should be in better shape with Ben Roethlisberger returning.
Elsewhere on the Steelers' schedule, games against the Titans, Eagles, Colts, and Bills could be challenging to some degree. But the Steelers should be favored at home more often than not and so long as Roethlisberger can stay healthy, they should have a chance to reach double-digit wins again.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 10 (-110). The Bucs have improved their offense greatly this offseason by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to the fold. Will their additions translate to success on the field? Only time will tell.
But the Bucs have a favorable schedule in 2020. They have to take on some talented teams including the Saints (twice), Packers, Chiefs, and Vikings, but their games against the latter three are all at home, as is one of the Saints games. If they can at least go 3-2 in those games, they should have a good chance to eclipse the 10-win mark.
And if they beat the Saints in Week 1 at the Superdome, it's possible that they could go on a bit of an undefeated run to start the season. Their four games after playing the Saints are vs. Panthers, at Broncos, vs. Chargers, and at Bears. Those all are winnable but first things first, Brady will look to dispatch the Saints in the first week of the season.
3. Indianapolis Colts: Over 8.5 (-155). Yeah, the juice on this one isn't that great, but that's because it feels like a shoo-in that the Colts will win at least nine games. They were off to a good start last year before Jacoby Brissett got hurt and regressed. Philip Rivers should help them to find success as a bridge quarterback, especially considering how much better his blocking will be with the Colts compared to the Chargers.
The Colts have a very easy start to the season. They realistically could have a chance to beat their first seven opponents. Their toughest games will be against the Vikings (at home) and the Bears (on the road), but if the Colts offense can click early, the Jaguars, Jets, Browns, Bengals, and Lions are all beatable.
The second half of the year is less kind, including a brutal five-game stretch where they play the Ravens, Titans (twice), Packers, and Texans, but they should be able to squeeze a win or two out of that patch if all goes well.
This bet may be a bit sketchier if the win total goes up to 9, but we'd like it even at that number. The Colts just seem like a team that should earn a Wild Card bid in 2020.
Under Bets
1. Houston Texans: Under 7.5 (-110). It's hard to find a team with a more brutal start to the season than the Texans. And while Deshaun Watson's presence should help them stay competitive, without DeAndre Hopkins, the team may have more trouble generating plays on offense.
The Texans get to take on the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and Vikings in the first four weeks. After that, they get a brief respite against the Jacksonville Jaguars before having to face the Titans and Packers, who played in the AFC and NFC Championship Game last season, before their bye week. So, it's possible that the Texans could go 1-6 to start the season.
Things get better for the Texans after their bye, but will the damage already be done? And they still do have to take on the Colts twice, the Patriots, the Titans, and the Bears. So, not all of their games are gimmes. Bill O'Brien has led the Texans back from a deficit before, but the task may be too tall for him this time around.
2. Detroit Lions: Under 7 (-115). The number of seven for the Lions always felt high even if they were getting back a healthy Matthew Stafford. Their schedule isn't terrible, but it's hard to find close to seven sure-fire wins on there.
In the first half of the season, the Lions have to face the Bears, Packers, Cardinals, Saints, Jaguars, Falcons, Colts, and Vikings. The home game against the Bears should be winnable and so is the road game against the Jaguars. But the rest of the games? They're tossups at best.
And in the second half of the season, the Lions are set to take on the Buccaneers as well as the Bears, Packers, and Vikings again.
There are simply too many quality opponents on the Lions schedule to trust them. And if the team struggles out of the gate, Matt Patricia could find himself on the hot seat which will only create more problems for the team. So, it's best to bet against the Lions in 2020.
3. New England Patriots: Under 9 (-110). It's certainly conceivable that the Patriots could win 9 or 10 games this season. But two factors make it more of a possibility than a likelihood. First, the team has a brutal schedule highlighted by an early-season gauntlet that sees them face the Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers in the first six weeks before playing six of their next eight games on the road. That's not easy for any team to deal with.
Secondly, Jarrett Stidham is in his first year as a starter, and he may have growing pains. And as our own Tom E. Curran pointed out recently, Stidham's growth could be stunted a bit by a lost offseason amid the COVID-19 pandemic. So, even if the team believes that he could be the future of the franchise, trusting him to get this team double-digit wins doesn't seem like a great bet.
So, we'll favor the under for the time being even though betting against Bill Belichick hasn't proven to be a wise decision over the years.
The 2020 NFL season is underway and football bettors have been zeroing in on teams’ win totals. Over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.
Win totals bets do have an added layer of risk attached this season due to the fact that there have been no pre-season games. With that said, there will undoubtedly be action throughout the coming months on these types of wagers. As such, let’s delve into some of the fundamentals of 2020 win totals bets, beginning with a look at the current totals at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
ALSO READ: NFL Week 1 Lines At DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL win totals 2020
Check back to this page for more win totals as they are released by sportsbooks.
How to bet win totals
Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the amount of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.
In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.
The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To further illustrate, let’s use a $10 bet for an example.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2019
Let’s suppose the Miami Dolphins are assigned a projected win total of seven victories for the 2020 season. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on Miami falling short of or exceeding seven wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).
Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Dolphins finishing over seven wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in Miami taking a sizable leap forward next season and exceeding seven wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).
Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks
As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within an online sportsbooks.
Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the offseason sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for a “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.
It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some, such as DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook, wait until the dust settles on important events such as free agency and the draft before rolling out their projected totals. Others, such as FOX Bet, made an initial selection of projected win totals available in early February.
Strategy for betting win totals
Line shopping
As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).
As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Miami Dolphins’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins is set at -110, while odds on over 6.5 wins is set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.
In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).
Recency bias
Vegas Over Under Win Totals Nfl
The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events (i.e., not just sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Simply put, recency bias is the concept of allowing the performances of a team/player in the recent past to affect a decision on a current wager.
This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. Say a bettor is considering placing a win totals bet on the New England Patriotsfor the 2020 season at this stage of the offseason. The total for the Patriots opened at 9.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure in the pre-free-agency-portion of the offseason.
However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro and head to Tampa Bay and the subsequent signing of former NFL MVP Cam Newton, the Patriots’ win total has been in flux all summer.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2020
In that example, the recency bias engendered by the Pats’ long stretch of success easily coaxed a bettor to assume that another 10-win season at minimum was about as automatic as it gets. However, in this case, not accounting for current circumstances would have cost that bettor money.
Inflated lines
The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.
To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line at a point where they estimate they’ll be able to get close to equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.
The aforementioned case of the Patriots’ 2020 win total could ultimately prove to be a textbook example over time. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section) or for the last several seasons but are reaching a tipping point of exponential improvement due to their ability to add multiple impact players this offseason and the ongoing development of their existing pieces.
In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider, if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.
